EUR/USD back under pressure as Draghi fuels QE expectations
Draghi came out and ruined decent euro’s performance for the week, sending EUR/USD closer to 1.2400 with his dovish comments. European Central Bank President said the ECB is ready to act in a timely manner if low inflation persists and expressed a sense of urgency that triggered speculation the bank could announce further easing measures as early as next December, with some analysts expecting a full-blown quantitative easing program.
Technically speaking, weekly charts show indicators in oversold levels and EUR/USD close to its 2014 low. Thus, some consolidation should be expected before another leg lower, but fundamental factors and further speculation of ECB easing measures could easily send the pair to fresh multi-month lows ahead of the December 4 policy meeting. Immediate target is seen at the 1.2290 zone (where several 2012 weekly lows converge) en route to 1.2100.
Meanwhile, EUR/USD needs to regain the 1.2560 area to ease immediate pressure, but only a sustained recovery above 1.2740 (23.6% Fibo of broader 1.3992-1.2357) could signal a more lasting upward move.
On the data front, it’s a busy week ahead with US data including PMIs, Q3 GDP revision, durable goods orders and housing data, while German IFO , confidence indicators and Eurozone CPI, taking special attention at this point, are the main events in the Eurozone calendar.